COPE may knock ANC to 50%

One of South Africa's top pollsters has suggested that the ANC breakaway party headed up by Terror Lekota and Mbhazima Shilowa could draw as much as 20% of the vote in the 2009 election. Professor Lawrence Schlemmer based this estimate on an opinion survey conducted by MarkData earlier this year.

Schlemmer said that "there is absolutely no doubt that the ANC, as it is at the moment under Mr Jacob Zuma, will lose support to this breakaway group. This breakaway group may also attract support from other opposition parties, so it's not only the ANC that's going to pay a price."

Schlemmer further stated, "if I interpret the results, look at the loyalties, look at the ratings of various leaders, their popularity, policy inclinations and all that sort of thing, I would say that the ANC could in fact lose anything up to about 20% [of the entire vote]. ... Now that of course would bring the ANC down to round about 50%, and then we'd be in a very interesting situation, because we'd probably have to have a coalition government in some shape or form."

However, Schlemmer did raise questions as to whether the breakaway would be able to sustain itself past 2009 up until the 2014 election. He said that "one of the factors that attracts people to the ANC is that it is the largest party. Now, people are fanciful in their thinking about prospects, and there are a lot of people that think that this breakaway group could in fact challenge the existing ANC in size...People love to be able to back a winner, their egos are involved, as individuals they feel more expansive if they are on the winning side. Now, when it turns out that this party, this breakaway group, is not - even though it may get a considerable amount of support it's not the same size as the ANC - some of the enthusiasm is going to go away. This has happened in the past, it happened to Mr Holomisa. You remember a lot of people backed him because they thought, wow, he's a popular guy, he's a winner. And when it turned out that he wasn't going to get all that much support they lost interest."

The Markdata poll which Schlemmer was discussing was a face to face survey of 2415 adult South Africans conducted between April and June 2008 (see here) - so after Polokwane but before the ANC breakaway. The poll is significant because it is the first representative survey published since the ANC's national conference in December. Other published polls this year have been confined to voters in the metropolitan areas and/or individuals with landline telephones.

The poll showed that with the 15,5% of non-choices excluded the ANC enjoyed the support of 70,5% of those polled, while the DA had the support of 20,6% of respondents. The ANC's support was down from the previous highs of March 2007 but at around the same level that it received in the 2004 election. DA support meanwhile was substantially up from the 12,4% support it received in the last national elections.

The survey also found that some 40% of ANC supporters polled expressed dissatisfaction with the performance of government and a similar percentage felt the country was moving in the wrong direction. 47% said they would support a party free of corruption. Schlemmer states in his report on the survey that one of the reasons why the ANC has maintained its high levels of popular support - despite such dissatisfaction and the internal dissension within the movement - was because "the leaders of different support groups in the party are all inside the party, hence not only villains but the heroes as well are ensconced in key party structures."

Among ANC supporters polled 22,2% said they admired former ANC President Thabo Mbeki, with a further 30,6% saying they strongly admired him. Although ANC President Jacob Zuma was admired, or strongly admired, by 60,3% of his party's supporters he was disliked or strongly disliked by 22,1% of them. One of the most influential power brokers in the new ANC, the SACP leader Blade Nzimande, was disliked or strongly disliked by 54,1% of ANC supporters.

Schlemmer notes in his report that Zuma "is a source of hope for the poorest, most aspirant and numerous among the party supporters." If his candidacy for the South African presidency were to be blocked by legal action "the party will be thrown into disarray because there is no alternative candidate with a sufficiently prominent profile to unite the party at short notice."

Zim: Soldiers riot, beginning of the end?

In a significant setback to Robert Mugabe's regime, uniformed soldiers have for the first time rioted in the centre of Zimbabwe's capital, Harare, after trying to withdraw cash from a bank that had run out of money.

Emerging details of the riots will embolden Zimbabweans ahead of protests planned for Wednesday by the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions against a government policy that stops people from drawing more than 500,000 Zimbabwe dollars (27 cents US$) from banks per day. The rioting marks the first time the low morale of the rank-and-file has exploded into public violence.

Witnesses said about 70 soldiers, believed to be from Harare's main KG6 barracks, turned violent after spending Thursday queuing at the main branch of the Zimbabwe Allied Banking Group. 'They stayed in the banking hall at closing time,' a staff member said. 'At about 4.30pm we told them there would be no money, and they ran amok. They insulted the staff, then went outside and smashed the windows.'

The group moved on to Roodepoort bus station, a few blocks away, where they assaulted black-market currency dealers and robbed them.

A soldier, who declined to be identified, told a local reporter: 'We have no food in the barracks. There is no medication in military hospitals, and we cannot access our money in the banks. Even if people are to riot, there would be no enthusiasm to stop them.'

Zimbabwe's soldiers and police are paid in local currency. A police officer, who declined to be named, said: 'The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe has a facility for us to collect money, but senior officers are looting all of it and asking us to go to get ours from the banks.'

Defence analyst Michael Quintana said the violence might signal the beginning of the end for the Mugabe regime. 'The army is down in strength from nearly 40,000 to about 26,000. There have been thousands of desertions. Barracks have stopped feeding all but senior officers, and soldiers depend on corruption and theft for incomes. If the time has come when they are ready to revolt, then the game will soon be up for Mugabe.'

Zimbabwe's official inflation annual rate is estimated at 231 million per cent, but independent economists cite the inflation rate in the billions of per cent. The 27 cent (US$) maximum account withdrawal buys a quarter of a loaf of bread and thousands of people spend their days in bank queues.

Victim films assault by female police officer

A Kyalami, northern Johannesburg, man who filmed a police officer assaulting him and his wife on his cellphone has laid charges in the hope that “the matter will be dealt with at the highest level”.

Baden Hall, who owns a corporate landscaping business, was following one of his trucks on Thursday morning on the way to a filling station in Lonehill, north of Joburg, when it was pulled over at a police roadblock on Lonehill Boulevard.

“I pulled over at the layby as they wanted to arrest two of my workers, because they didn’t have papers.

“I spoke to the female sergeant and told her I had all my workers’ registration papers on file at the office, and would bring them to the police station,” Hall said.

‘You feel so helpless’

He was told that the men would be taken to Morningside police station, and when he queried this as Douglasdale police station was closer, he was insulted.

“So then I told her I wanted to see her appointment card, as by law she has to identify herself when asked before executing a police function.

“Then a female inspector in command of the roadblock stepped in. She shrugged me off, and when I asked her to wait she told me to f*** off and get out of the way,” said Hall.

He was outraged, but as a former police reservist himself, he knew that while he could not legally photograph a police official’s face, he could photograph their name badge.

“I set my phone to camera and went to photograph her badge and she hit me on the left side of my face with her fist, and then backhanded me on the right.”

Taken off guard, Hall grabbed the woman by her collar.

“Then she started screaming a string of political abuse at me along the lines of ‘You white sh**, you are going to die here with your money. We will make sure you never leave this country, you will die here first’,” said Hall.

He then stepped back and called his wife Melanie, telling her that he was not planning on leaving the roadblock, and wanted her to accompany the truck, and pay for the petrol so that his workers could continue.

“Mel arrived and yelled at the policewoman for assaulting members of the public, and the woman came for her. So I put my phone on video mode and as she came to hit me, she missed and hit Melanie with a glancing blow,” Hall explained.

The seven seconds of footage on his phone shows an angry policewoman storming the camera aggressively, striking out in front of her as a loud slap sounds. Then the picture ends suddenly as the phone was knocked out of Hall’s hand.

The couple said the attack caused a commotion, as other police members entered the fray and restrained their aggressive colleagues.

According to Hall, a commanding officer from Sandton arrived, and he then tried to reason with this officer.

“Basically the Superintendent tried to labour the point of the workers with me, and I told him that was not the issue.

“It was the fact that an arresting officer refused to identify herself, then struck me twice when I tried to photograph her lapel badge.

“He said I had grabbed her, and I pointed out I had been unprovokedly attacked and was entitled to defend myself.”

Speaking to The Star shortly after the incident, Hall said he was devastated, and would lay a charge of assault against the woman.

“Nobody was in control there. The inspector told me to f*** off at least three times, and I intend opening a case and reporting this to the Independent Complaints Directorate in the hope this will be escalated as high as possible.”

Melanie Hall said she was horrified by the assault.

“You feel so helpless. They join ranks around you.”

The SAPS said they could not comment at this stage.

Because I can....

So screw you if you can't take a joke. This mentality is so typical of the simians in the new! improved! South Africa. African time - means always being late for appointments.

Don't drive recklessly and don't speed, MEC for Transport, Safety and Security, Bheki Cele, told blue light drivers this week.

If you do, you will face the strong arm of the law. But blue light drivers, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that, while they will agree to abide by the law, it won't suit the MECs who, they claim, are usually late for appointments. VIP unit drivers who transport MECs in KwaZulu-Natal came under close scrutiny earlier this month after a blue light incident in which eight people were injured when a black Mazda veered off the N3 and collided with another vehicle.

'All of us drivers are going to be more cautious'

The driver claimed that the tyre of the Mazda was shot at by the VIP unit driver of MEC for Social Welfare Meshack Radebe. Several other motorists have reported being harassed on the road by blue light drivers. In a startling admission, a VIP driver, who we call Mr X (his identity is known to the Tribune) said he used the blue light "because I could" to get other drivers out of the way."

I use it when we need to get an MEC to a meeting on time. We know we shouldn't be doing so, but we use the blue light even though there is no emergency."

This week Cele, acting on a mandate from Cabinet, warned VIP drivers to be extra cautious on the road. Cele reminded the drivers that they should not compromise the safety of the people they wereprotecting, and no one was above the law.

'Using the blue light just boosts our ego'

The officers were told at a closed meeting to bear in mind that legislation provided for specific actions by the police that would ensure the safety of VIPs, without compromising the safety of the public. Mr X admitted that most of the time they drove way above the speed limit on national highways. "We never travel at 120km/h. It's always 140 or more. "Drivers took it upon themselves, he said, to use the blue light.

"For some, it's a show of power."

He said some departments had fines that amounted to more than R40 000 that had accumulated over the months. Mr X said drivers were well aware they should use the blue light only in an emergency. This would include situations where the MEC's life was in danger, travelling in a dangerous area, and threat of an ambush. They were also permitted to use blue lights when travelling in a convoy, at official functions or when they were arriving at a venue to show they had arrived.

"The MEC doesn't tell us to put the blue light on or to speed," said Mr X. "But they always hint that they are late so we do what we have to do. Now, however, after Bheki Cele's warning, all of us drivers are going to be more cautious. For the next few days anyway, then we'll revert to our normal behaviour.

"He said that "come what may, unless it is a real emergency, we have promised not to speed or travel with the blue light on unnecessarily". However, he believed going at a lower speed could cause big problems as the MECs "are always late and will now never arrive on time. Meetings, events, functions, people are all going to be kept waiting". He also admitted he was going to miss the thrill of seeing other cars moving out of the way in a panic "when we put the blue lights on". While blue light drivers knew what the rules of the road were, Mr X said most unit drivers hated driving slowly and could not sit in traffic, "because we know it's dangerous as we don't know who is in front or behind us. But we have the power to use the light so we do. "I accept we are also an arrogant lot and think that we are above others, so using the blue light just boosts our ego."

SAPS national spokesperson Supertendent Vishnu Naidoo said the SAPS VIP drivers were permitted to use the blue light in the execution of their work "in any manner they may deem necessary". "The Road Traffic Act allows these drivers to exceed the speed limit. If a driver wants to exceed the speed limit, he puts his blue light on to signal that he is approaching and that the way must be cleared. He also does not have to be speeding to use the blue light."

All trained policemen and Metro Police are allowed the use of the blue light. An MEC who is driving, cannot use the blue light," said Naidoo. He said the SAPS did not condone members unnecessarily using the blue light.

"We won't tolerate those who abuse their power, uniform, firearm and blue light. They must not think they are above the law." KwaZulu-Natal Premier Sibusiso Ndebele said no one was above the law, but at the same time legislation provided for specific actions by the police to ensure the safety of principals on escort, without compromising the safety of other road users and the public."We call upon all road users to remember to adhere to the rules of the road. One of the golden rules is to keep left and not hog the fast lane," said Ndebele.

SA among top 20 most dangerous places

The ANC must feel a sense of pride. Not only do we rate as the world's highest Aids-infested, crime-infested, rape-infested, [insert anything you want here]-infested, we can add our name to the list of Top 20 most dangerous countries.

Terror-reeling India and South Africa have something in common: both are rated as one of the world's 20 most dangerous countries.

Backed by travel advice issued by the UK's Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO), London's The Telegraph newspaper has placed South Africa alongside Iraq, Afghanistan, Chechnya, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Colombia, Haiti, Eritrea, Pakistan, Burundi, Nigeria and the DRC in terms of danger to travellers.

According to the FCO, South Africa has "an underlying threat from terrorism".

"Attacks, although unlikely, could be indiscriminate, including in places frequented by expatriates and foreign travellers."

The FCO's travel advisory on SA also states: "South Africa has a very high level of crime, including rape and murder. However, most cases occur in the townships and in areas away from the main tourist destinations.

"In 2007 and 2008 there were a number of incidents involving foreigners being followed from OR Tambo Airport, Johannesburg, to their destinations by car and then robbed, often at gunpoint. We recommend you exercise particular caution in and around the airport and extra vigilance when driving away.

"The standard of driving is variable and there are many fatal accidents."