Apocalypse or Nirvana? Four post-Mbeki scenarios

So, how is South Africa’s political life going to play out over the next year? Here are four scenarios to ponder (in no particular order):

1. THE DOOMSDAY SCENARIO
Mosiuoa Lekota and his ANC breakaway party start to encounter some heavy going when they campaign for the election in the ANC’s stronghold’s. No-go areas are encountered and former comrades face each other across the barricades as violence grows and overwhelms the elections in heavily contested areas.

Lekota’s people are not blameless and the Eastern Cape’s rural hinterland becomes a no-go area for Jacob Zuma. Things start to assume an ethnic slant and the IEC finds itself hopelessly unprepared for massive rigging of the vote outcome in the rural areas of the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal, where divisions are bitter. There are more incidents in the Free State and Gauteng.

The police, no longer able to properly police public disorder, are helpless. The troops move in and the bodies start to pile up. The outcome of the election is contested and upheavals grow. Zuma is declared president amidst violence not seen since 1994 as Lekota declares “independence” for several provinces in which the ANC failed to win a clear majority.

2. THE HAPPY ENDINGS OUTCOME
South Africa shows it is a model democracy. There is free, open and fair campaigning throughout the country. Those loyal to Mosiuoa Lekota and the supporters of Jacob Zuma exchange jibes, but nothing more. Both leaders are at pains to stress tolerance and ensure that their campaign firebrands are kept on a short leash.

The campaign is fought on the issues and the country moves forward with a new, vibrant body politic after the election. President Zuma is finally accepted by the nation, but he faces a tough opponent in Lekota on the opposition benches.

3. THE HYBRID
Things turn nasty, but are brought under control. Both leaders agree to a joint effort to ensure a peaceful and free election. They by-and-large pull this off, but there is simmering resentment on the ground which flares up into violence every so often.

The election is free and fair but for a small number of isolated wards which would not have affected the outcome in any event. The country moves forward - two steps forward and one step back, to be more precise - with Zuma at the helm, but heavily dependent on a network of alliances to keep power in key provinces.

4. THE WILD CARD
The NPA wins its Constitutional Court appeal and fresh charges are brought against Zuma, sparking an unprecedented uprising against the courts by his supporters. Those loyal to Lekota, on the other hand, are out telling the nation: “We told you so!” as Zuma supporters call for reactionary judges to be “eliminated”.

Inside the Zuma camp, divisions arise as the court proceedings get under way and mountains of embarrassing documentation are read into the court which give the nation a glimpse of Zuma’s financial dependence and poor judgement. As Lekota’s party gains ground, the ANC dumps Zuma for Motlanthe as presidential candidate, throwing the Lekotarites (I don’t think Terrorists is a good name) are thrown onto the back foot, having based their entire campaign on the Zuma card. The country lurches forward with Motlanthe rebuilding ANC unity.