The political situation in ZA is very fluid at the moment. I can sense the "electricity" from 13000 miles away. It's all to do with the strike by public sector workers, now entering it's 10th day.
Amazing how things have de-generated from the high of the SWC to this low so quickly!
There is a massive wrangling for power going on in the tripartate alliance and it is difficult to predict how it will play out in the coming weeks and months.
The latest from IOL:
The Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) said on Thursday that its decades-long alliance with the ruling African National Congress was in a state of paralysis and could rupture.
"The alliance is unable to convene a summit for fear of an implosion," the group said in a statement.
The comment is one of the strongest indications that organised labour, which helped President Jacob Zuma ascend to the presidency, may be willing to cut a relationship with the ANC forged in their struggle to end apartheid. - Reuters
Read that again!!! The alliance is collapsing before your very eyes!
What does it mean?
I read the recent interview with FW De Klerk with interest (the photo reveals how the poor man has aged) and looking at his conclusions, I thought to myself, he should know better. I'm excerpting his conclusions only; you can read the whole article here.
De Klerk: "If you analyse the broader structures of the ANC you will find people grouped together who believe in completely different things. The old glue which kept them connected was the struggle to end apartheid. Apartheid is gone now, and so is the cement.
"So the ANC is going to split. They don't like hearing it, but I'm convinced it will happen. And when it does, we will see our democracy normalised to a greater degree.
"Then alliance politics will take a strong step forward in South Africa. Alliance politics allows for realistic compromises."
He's half right for sure, but as I say, he should know better! Looking at the situation in Kenya and Zimbabwe, he must know that things are not going to be that easy. Fatcat African politicos under threat (especially if they have the invincible "struggle credential" card, will deploy any means at their disposal to ward off any perceived attackers: There will be NO compromise. They will stoop to the point of attacking and killing their own countrymen in order to cling to power.
Then there are those that are predicting the advent of the great uprising against whites. That what is taking place right now is a carefully orchestrated execution of the the "real" National Democratic (read communist) revolution.
If you take De Klerk's view, things will be OK and what has gone before was a false dawn and what is coming soon is nothing short of the true light of democracy in ZA and the end of ANC hegemony.
Alliance politics will be in vogue, politicians will be held to account for their actions and things will be rosy for ZA forever. If you take the other extreme, things are going to get worse, quick. It's very fluid and somehow, I cannot reconcile myself to a point in the middle. I'm forced to consider both extreme options.
Is this the beginning of the real end? Or is De Klerk somehow able to see Jesus in the clouds, slowly descending, about to pull the ultimate joke on the ANC?