Monday, October 05, 2009

Is Vavi angling for top spot?

Brace yourselves fellow SA'ns, you shiny happy people you! Just when you thought you had reached the point that you might actually be able to stomach transformation and keep it down. Nope, it 'aint gonna happen, because "transformation" is about so much more than race. There's a class war brewing, and if you can't see it, you need to wipe the shit from your eyes.

I see full blown communism for SA in under 10 years...

Justice Malala: If I were Tokyo Sexwale or Mathews Phosa, both often cited as possible successors to Jacob Zuma as ANC president in 2012 or 2017, I would be worried. Very, very worried.

If I were Tokyo Sexwale or Mathews Phosa, both often cited as possible successors to Jacob Zuma as ANC president in 2012 or 2017, I would be worried. Very, very worried.
Because here is something that we all shun from thinking out loud: Zwelinzima Vavi, the energetic secretary-general of trades unions federation Cosatu, might well be positioning himself for the leadership role after Zuma.

And why not? The ANC has been changing fundamentally in a post-apartheid South Africa. The party has, since its formation, been led by the middle classes: its founders were lawyers, doctors and teachers. Zuma's immediate predecessor was of that ilk: a master's graduate from Sussex University, he was in the mould of Mandela and Tambo, and Moroka and Pixley ka Isaka Seme.

Zuma's election broke with that tradition. It broke with many other traditions, too. The Left - Cosatu and the SA Communist Party - has far more influence in the ANC than ever before. For people like me, our analysis has always led us to the conclusion that the sharp differences between the traditional, middle-class, capitalist ANC and the Left would deepen and lead to a fissure. I am not so sure anymore.

Even if Cosatu and the SACP continue to suffer losses on issues such as macro-economic policy, I am no longer sure that the Left will walk out and form a Left party. The inroads already made are too deep to abandon. The likes of Vavi and SACP secretary-general Blade Nzimande won't just let them go.

So what do they do? They insinuate themselves into the leadership structures of the ANC. They continue to berate the likes of National Planning Minister Trevor Manuel, for allegedly building himself up into an "imperial" prime minister, and call for their nominee, Economic Development Minister Ebrahim Patel, to be given a more powerful policy role.

Crucially, Zuma as ANC leader is amenable to the Left's demands. After all, they put him where he is. ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe is chairman of the SACP. This is a firm base to build on. In fact, the tripartite alliance exists in name only. The truth is that the three bodies now operate virtually as the same entity inside the ANC.

At the Cosatu congress two weeks ago, Vavi said he was serving his last term as secretary-general of the federation. He said he would be willing, if nominated, to run for senior positions in the ANC and SACP. Now, there is absolutely nothing for Vavi in the SACP. The only meaningful destination, in terms of impact and career progression, is the ANC.

"If I'm nominated, I will stand, but not for your position," he said, referring to Mantashe, the secretary-general of the ANC.

What other positions are there for him? Not the treasurer-general's position, which needs a fund-raiser - something that Vavi is not, and would not be comfortable doing. Certainly not the chairman's position, a ceremonial position currently held by the ineffectual Baleka Mbete. Deputy president of the ANC? Perhaps, if it comes in 2012, and if Kgalema Motlanthe does not stand again.

The deputy president's position is important, in that Thabo Mbeki and Zuma used it as an organising point. The deputy of the ANC, they said when they held the position, is traditionally the successor to the throne. Were Vavi to run for this position in 2012, he would have started to construct a narrative for his ascent to power in 2017.
Cosatu and the SACP know it would not be easy, were they to launch such an audacious plan. In fact, they are classing the challenge they are throwing at the ANC Cabinet today as a "war".

Accepting his re-election as Cosatu president, Sidumo Dlamini said: "From now onwards, Cosatu's presence will be felt and our socialist voice will be heard, right inside the corridors of power."

The succession battle inside the ANC is therefore on - and fully so. At the end of August, Fikile Mbalula, the former ANC Youth League president, admitted that he was being considered by some for the position of secretary-general. This faction of the ANC is unhappy with Mantashe's Left support.

The Mbalula faction and the Vavi declaration have released the succession genie. Vavi for president of the ANC, and possibly of the country for two terms?

Don't say you were not warned.

13 Opinion(s):

Anonymous said...

The SACP arm of the alliance has always (through Cosatu) had much more support than the ANC!
The ONLY REASON that the ANC won the first makro-South African election is that the creators of the ANC (big Western Business / Banking Cartel) told the ANC Leaders that they cold have everything thy wanted for their own families and friends AS LONG AS THEY KEPT THE PEASANTS IN THEIR PLACE... this they did!
The only reason they won the second election (and subsequent ones) was by assasinating the most powerful communist in the country (Chris Hani) as an example to those who chose not to be bought out!

Vavi will eiher be bought out, like Naidoo, or taken out, like Hani!
So-called democracy had nothing to do with the creation of the South African makro-state. The only aim was to remove power from the good people and give it to those who cold be bought. End of!

Anonymous said...

@ anon 7:39, that is incorrect. The SACP has never contested elections because it does not enjoy much support. We did a post on the matter - see here where it shows that the aim of the SACP is to infiltrate the power structures through the back door. It is succeeding in that aim, when you look at how many ANC leaders - like Zuma - were or are current Communists.

Viking said...

Anon, I don't know how you can say Chris Hani wasn't "bought out".
He lived in a shiny house in a white suburb didn't he? Hardly very communist of him!

Doberman, do you think the SACP doesn't contest elections for fear they won't get much -or any- support at all?

Anonymous said...

@ Viking, indeed. Most surveys have shown that the SACP's support is minimal and the ANC on its own would win elections with or without the SACP and Cosatu. It's just that the alliance puts it at the 2/3rds mark whereas without it they would only get about 50%-55% of the vote. I don't know about 2014 but the best thing that could happen is for the alliance to split which won't happen because the SACP needs the ANC and will pull back if the ANC puts its foot down.

Cosatu is the ANC in any event, actually a bit of both, ANC/SACP and they act as the agitators. A nice little marxist setup, going by the book.

Viking said...

Someone said to me recently, Dobes, that the ANC is being clever holding onto the SACP because it can control them. Is there any truth in this?
Or does the SACP control the ANC??

Anonymous said...

I wouldn't say the SACP controls the ANC but it does have operatives in high positions within the ANC, and always has, and thereby ensures many of its policies filter through to the mainstream. The ANC does not need the SACP, it tolerates it, perhaps for old time's sake, perhaps the misperception that the SACP brings a lot of support to the alliance but the truth is, the SACP does not stand a chance in elections and so won't contest them for fear of revealing to the ANC that it is a lightweight force really.

Anonymous said...

Chris Hani said openly (after the '94 elections):
"For the greater good of South Africa (meaning the West wouldn't turn their backs on their own creation), we went into this elecion with the ANC, but anyone knows we are the ANC and the SACP-Cosatu Allince WILL contest the next elections as an independent party"!

Without being able to change his mind over a perod of three years, and the next elections just two years away, Hani was shot dead! I'll never forget seeing Naidoo on SABC News the very next day - he was wearing a suit with a collar and tie! I'd seen him a million times and only ever seen him wearing a mandarin collar! Hani NEVER wore a collar and tie!

The message was out: suit up "western style" OR ship out "coffin style"!

Anonymous said...

Oh come now. Even in the 1980's everyone knew that the SACP was in charge, the ANC was its marketing piece and COSATU was its hands.

It was a cover! I uploaded this book before. Its dated but everything that was said in the 1980's is coming true today. The only difference is that they did not calculate greed into the equation.

Everyone is sold on communism. The question is can the ANC now stand without the SACP and COSATU --- NO!

Vavi will be bought out as he likes shiny things. Hani I think Anon is correct would not be bought. His death is the only reason why Mbeki got in. I have the feeling that Hani was going to boot the ANC as they did not need the cover any longer. What they forgot was that the ANC was such a succefull sell overseas that it outlived the time they needed it. It took on a life of its own.

Remember when Mbeki got in, SA changed from RDP to GEAR which was business friendly and relied on an economic trickle down effect which they knew would not work but would spread loads of cash onto those at the top of the ANC with businesses.

Also remember that when Mbeki got in Ramamphosa was rumoured to be a 'spy' which also pushed him out and he left under a cloud. NOW with Zuma the tables are turning!

10 Years? Possibly!

Vavi will either smoke the pipe or suck the bullet. We know what happened to old Buthelzi when he refused to smoke the pipe in 1994. He was given options. The same would more likely than not have gone for Gen Viljoen. Vavi will find himself in the very same corner.


@ anon 6;45 pm

" Chris Hani said openly after the 1994 election ..."

Tell me: was this guy speaking from inside his grave at that time ?????

Anonymous said...

Yeah, that's right, I remember that Hani speech, it was a year (10 months if memory serves) before the '94 elections when he announced the SACP-Cosatu would go it alone for the second elections!

Doesn't change the fact that Anon 6:54 has hit the nail on the head with how things work here in "the West"!

Anonymous said...

Everyone thought Zuma would be the Socialist Revolutionary, but even before becoming President (ie. immediately after Polokwane) he was flown to Dallas for "talks" with the owners of the Fed! Needless to say he now knows how things work, and will continue to work!

Zuma just wants to be Chief, so he will be tolerated; Mbeki was more of a racist than socialist, so he was tolerated, nay encouraged - two birds with one stone (kill off more whites AND keep milking the sub-continent); Hani was too principled and had to be taken out; Buthelezi was a nationalist so never stood a chance (hence he accepted limited self-government of the Zulus by the Zulus ala Bitish indirect rule); and Mandela was their boy from the start!

This is how SA is run, and will continue to be run, from abroad!

It's common sense really.

Common Sense

Exzanian said...

SA was sold out by Big Capital, no doubt about it. The problem is that by the time the commies starting wiping the sleep from their eyes it slowly began to dawn on them that the "revolution" had never actually happened. They had been hoodwinked! Hence Polokwane. Zuma is a spineless fence sitter, but there will be others after him, perhaps Mantashe or Vavi, that will attempt to take further steps into communism....In any case, be ready for unrest and mass action to worsen until these commies have finally had their revolution and we all go back into the stone age ala Zimboonia...Ironically, it is the glorious corruptability of the African that has prevented this from happening thus far (see how quickly Blade muttered an apology about his BMW 750I but refused to give it up?) The last thing SA needs is a bold and principled communist black to step up to the plate and say "You cannot buy me"

Anonymous said...

"The last thing SA needs is a bold and principled communist black to step up to the plate and say "You cannot buy me"!"

Hi Exzanian! I agree with all you said BUT the above. In my opinion this would be fanfrickingtastic...
I'd love to see them take out their frustrations on Big Capital rather than on the white Africans, which is what they're doing right now.
Imagine if Sam and Robert had nationalised the mines rather than the farms... the pom and yank military would be all over their asses and we'd be far more likely to have got our own State here in SA.
As you say, they're only just wiping the sleep from their eyes (bar the ones who've actually been instructed) and are making known their disapproval of the Imperial Powers who until now have relied on their myth about the evilness of white Africans, to keep the black Africans busy!

Common Sense