Tuesday, August 11, 2009

SA still in recession, but new barometers give hope



From: I kid you not Department

The Sake24 and BOE Private Clients' provincial barometers for June show that despite pockets of optimism, economic conditions in SA are unlikely to turn around. These provincial barometers were improvised by independent economist, Mike Shussler, and while they do show signs that there may soon be an upswing, I tend to think Shussler is doing a bit of the old jiggery pokery here. The KFC indicator is only based on three weeks of data after all, but hey, what the hell, I may be wrong!

The provincial barometers for Gauteng and the Eastern Cape fell by 12.6% and 16.6% respectively in June, showing that businesses and consumers really are struggling.

The provincial economies of the Western Cape and Free State fell by 7.3% and 5.2% respectively, which means that business is not really so bad in these provinces.

The broad financial sector performed poorly, with especially the residential property market struggling. Activity levels in this sector in Gauteng were 23.5% lower than in June 2008. The Western Cape (-10.5%), Eastern Cape (-31.5%) and the Free State (-17.6%) were also sharply down.

However, Schüssler said there are indications of a revival.

1 - If the furniture and hardware sectors are excluded from retail sales, this sales figure for June was fractionally higher than in June last year.

2 - KFC's sales in the past three weeks grew in comparison with last year, after having fallen back for nearly a year.

3 - Eskom has indicated that electricity consumption is increasing, compared with 2008

1 Opinion(s):

Doberman said...

Talk about grasping at straws. Almost everything shows double digit reductions and things are "improving"? And he uses KFC as a barometer? This is Africa, KFC is a staple food. Even during Ethiopian famines, KFC sales are up. As for Eskom, well shit, has it been a cold winter? Er, yes.

Next they'll be measuring the number of hijackings to see if there is a drop ergo things are improving. Shussler can't be serious.