Recently I provided you with a brief analysis of our Primary and Secondary schooling system. Please read and interpret the findings, with the help of the IQ table I provided in a later posting. If the results weren't alarming, to say the least, then perhaps this new article will give you a nudge. This time I will analyse South Africa's tertiary system
Have a look closely. The first set of bar graphs are the maximum potential enrolments, based on IQ for the various race groups (as determined in the first analysis). The second set of bar graphs are the actual enrolments supplied by the DOE, but adjusted to an annual first year figure. As was highlighted earlier, it is intuitive not to expect all HG matriculants to attend university, and this is apparent when we analyse the white, coloured and asian numbers. The glaring anomaly is the black column. It is massively disproportionate to the hypothetical maximum, what is even more disturbing is that the theoretical maximum was approximately 35,000 learners too high. My God, something is afoot. Clearly we are allowing woefully ill prepared and cognitively deficient blacks into university, wasting tax payer money, when there is a zero probability of getting a return.
An interesting byproduct was the pass rates, supplied by the DOE. A pass rate is the rate at which enrolled students pass, and move to the next year. Note how these are correlated with IQ, namely white, asian, coloured and black. This provides some validation for the use of IQ.
Using the pass rates, and applying them each year (to a 4 year program) yielded an ultimate theoretical graduation rate of 54,500, which matched the actual graduation rate of 52,388 quite well. Shockingly, about 58% of the graduates, or 30,000 students, came from a pool that was clearly admitted despite IQ levels that places them in the 85 and lower category. Moreover, note that 79,185 black students start out (62.60% of the total) but only 30,346 graduate (57.93% of the total). So why let the idiots in in the first place? Come on Blade Nzimande, you can spend the money more wisely.
Another titbit, you will recall that UCT Medical School has an AA policy of screening potential students based on their results, with whites requiring 91%, asians 88%, coloureds 78% and blacks 74%. Using South Africa's grading scale, the DOE's statistics, IQ data and a Monte Carlo simulator we can approximately derive the numbers of potential students at the various admission levels.
Maybe UCT should lower the benchmark to 65% for blacks.
The higher admission requirement for whites and asians means they will be selected from the 138 IQ category, which is seriously gifted.
There will be at least 188 white students to choose from per annum.
The lower admission requirements for coloureds and blacks means they will be selected from the 125 IQ category, which is borderline.
There will be at least 62 coloureds to choose from, and virtually no blacks per annum.
Back to the tertiary statistics. So from Grade 12 enrolment to university graduation, a mere 5.26% get through, or approximately 1 in 20. Finally, in the ANC's quest to impose egalitarianism, blindly believing we are all equally endowed, you will see them tinker with enrolments until they correspond with demographics. The only group that will suffer will be the whites, who will be woefully under-represented relative to their IQ levels.
In summary, does it mean that a South African degree is worthless? Not necessarily, but only if you are black given that there is an over-representation relative to their IQ levels and anticipated graduation rates, which suggests behind the scenes manipulation.
Update: Anybody got the balls to replicate this study for an MBA?