An interesting recent development was the move to host the IPL in South Africa. I appreciate that India will be hosting the largest democratic election on the planet, and that security, in the wake of the Sri Lankan cricket tragedy, cannot be guaranteed by the state.
What makes this more intriguing is that the Indian sub-continent is home to the most fanatical cricket fans in the world. How does South Africa hope to replicate that excitement? Even more importantly, how will it be profitable?
The authorities are suggesting we are in for a cricketing bonanza, but IOL has run a survey to establish whether South Africans will be attending any of the games.
Surprisingly only 33% suggested that they would attend a game. Now I know we have the usual polymath types that will bellow that the results are not statistically representative, so I decided to do the usual number crunching.
Assuming we do not have a finite cricket population, we need to first determine a representative sample size. This I determined to be 384 people, where I wanted to be accurate 95% of the time that the spread wouldn't be greater than/less than 5% from the population results. So, given that the survey is larger than 384, we can assume that the results would fit my criteria.
What does this mean?
Well I wish it was definitive. It isn't. As always with statistics, there are caveats. Those that completed the survey are probably a cross-section of society, cricket fans are a smaller segment, therefore the results are probably unfairly skewed. Intuitively I cannot see how our small cricket supporting population will make it financially viable though, so revenues will probably be earnt through television rights. We will have to wait and see. Will you be attending and what are your thoughts?