Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Seat allocation for parleymunt

DA gains, ANC wins and loses, COPE disappoints, and the other parties suffer

JOHANNESBURG - The African National Congress has lost its two-thirds majority in parliament. According to the final results for the 2009 national elections, released by the Independent Electoral Commission on Saturday, South Africa's ruling party won 65,9% of the vote, down from 69,69% in 2004 (see here). 17,680,729 valid votes were cast in this election; just over 2 million more than the 15,612,671 cast in 2004. Voter turnout was 77,3%, up from 76,7% in 2004.

The ANC will take up 264 seats in the 400 member national assembly, 32 fewer than it held by the end of the last parliament, and three seats short of the majority needed to change the constitution unilaterally. The ANC also lost control of the Western Cape to the Democratic Alliance.

Although the ANC effectively saw off the challenge posed by the Congress of the People, this is still the first real electoral reversal the ruling party has suffered since 1994. The ANC's share of the vote declined significantly in all provinces except Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal. In the Eastern Cape, Free State, Limpopo, North West and Western Cape the ANC also saw an absolute decline in the number of votes it received. In these five provinces the ANC received 783,706 fewer votes, in total, than in 2004.

Table 1: ANC's support by province - 2004 and 2009 national elections compared

2004

2009

Provinces

ANC votes

All votes

Percent

ANC votes

All votes

Percent

KwaZulu Natal

1,312,767

2,765,203

47.47%

2,256,248

3,527,234

63.97%

Mpumalanga

979,155

1,134,092

86.34%

1,152,698

1,343,253

85.81%

Gauteng

2,408,821

3,504,363

68.74%

2,814,277

4,345,613

64.76%

Northern Cape

222,205

323,201

68.75%

253,264

414,502

61.10%

Limpopo

1,487,168

1,657,596

89.72%

1,319,659

1,547,636

85.27%

North West

1,083,254

1,323,761

81.83%

822,166

1,113,411

73.84%

Free State

838,583

1,022,044

82.05%

756,287

1,051,858

71.90%

Eastern Cape

1,806,221

2,277,391

79.31%

1,609,926

2,309,643

69.70%

Western Cape

742,741

1,605,020

46.28%

666,223

2,027,579

32.86%

Total

10,880,915

15,612,671

69.69%

11,650,748

17,680,729

65.90%

The ANC's fall in support across much of the country was substantially offset by Jacob Zuma's personal popularity among Zulu-speaking voters, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal. In Mpumalanga, Gauteng, and KZN the ANC won 1,522,480 more votes than in 2004 - with just under a million (943,481) of these coming from Zuma's home province. (The ANC's gains were largely at the expense of the IFP which received 804,260 votes (4,55%) of the total, down from 1,088,664 (6,97%) in 2004.) 53,4% of the ANC's national vote came from these three provinces, up from 42,2% in 2004 (see charts below). Overall, the ANC received 11,650,748 votes at national level, up from 10,880,915 in 2004.

The Democratic Alliance upped its number of votes nationally by fifty percent - an increase of one million. It made gains in all provinces barring Limpopo.

Table 2: DA's support by province - 2 004 and 2009 national elections compared

2004

2009

Provinces

DA votes

All votes

Percent

DA votes

All votes

Percent

KwaZulu Natal

276429

2,765,203

10.00%

364518

3,527,234

10.33%

Mpumalanga

81313

1,134,092

7.17%

102039

1,343,253

7.60%

Gauteng

712395

3,504,363

20.33%

924211

4,345,613

21.27%

Northern Cape

37533

323,201

11.61%

54215

414,502

13.08%

Limpopo

63236

1,657,596

3.81%

57418

1,547,636

3.71%

North West

72444

1,323,761

5.47%

96850

1,113,411

8.70%

Free State

90609

1,022,044

8.87%

127259

1,051,858

12.10%

Eastern Cape

165135

2,277,391

7.25%

230187

2,309,643

9.97%

Western Cape

432107

1,605,020

26.92%

989132

2,027,579

48.78%

Total

1,931,201

15,612,671

12.37%

2,945,829

17,680,729

16.66%

The DA's big breakthrough came in the Western Cape. On the national ballot the DA gained over half-a-million new votes in the province. It also won a 51,46% majority on the provincial ballot - which gave the party 22 out of 41 seats in the Western Cape legislature (see here). The party headed off the challenge posed by COPE, which had at one stage threatened to make serious inroads into the DA's constituency as much as it did the ANC's. COPE did however beat the DA to the position of official opposition in the Eastern Cape, Free State (by 0,01%), Limpopo, North West and Northern Cape.

COPE's inability to run an effective election campaign - due to massive underfunding relative to the ANC and organisational weaknesses - meant that its support declined as the campaign progressed, and the initial enthusiasm its launch had generated began to wear off. The party eventually won 1,311,027 votes (7,42%) on the national ballot and 30 seats in the national assembly.

Table 3: COPE's national support - by province

2009

Provinces

COPE votes

All votes

Percent

KwaZulu Natal

54,611

3,527,234

2.36%

Mpumalanga

38,802

1,343,253

2.89%

Northern Cape

66,082

414,502

15.94%

Limpopo

111,651

1,547,636

7.21%

North West

93,898

1,113,411

8.43%

Free State

116,852

1,051,858

11.11%

Gauteng

337,931

4,345,613

7.78%

Eastern Cape

307,437

2,309,643

13.31%

Western Cape

183,763

2,027,579

9.06%

Total

1,311,027

17,680,729

7.42%

The biggest losers of the campaign were the smaller parties. The Freedom Front Plus managed to hold onto its four seats, but the ACDP, ID, UDM, PAC and UCDP all suffered severe losses.

Table 4: Support for other parties nationally - 2004 and 2009 compared

Year

2004

2009

Parties

Votes

%

Seats

Votes

%

Seats

ACDP

250,272

1.60%

6

142,658

0.81%

3

APC

NA

NA

NA

35,867

0.20%

1

AZAPO

39,116

0.25%

1

38,245

0.22%

1

ID

269,765

1.73%

7

162,915

0.92%

4

MF

55,267

0.35%

2

43,474

0.25%

1

PAC

113,512

0.73%

3

48,530

0.27%

1

UCDP

117,792

0.75%

3

66,086

0.37%

2

UDM

355,717

2.28%

9

149,680

0.85%

4

VF Plus

139,465

0.89%

4

146,796

0.83%

4

Total

15,612,671

8.59%

35

17,680,729

4.72%

21



1 Opinion(s):

Leifur said...

I notice though that with the three pan-africanist black parties they can form a two thirds majority. Will these single seat parties not vote with the ANC in such matters?

But it is at least a symbolic loss that could be the start of greater things, or something to be offset if f.e. Zuma calls for reelection of the national parliment alongside the municipial elections in 2011. Can he and would he?

One big question though, is it true that the decision of who sits in each seat for the parties is not decided until after the elections? Can the party recall his MP?

I don´t know of any democratic state that does it this way, have newer heard of it before. It makes me despair for how bad your constitution is, and how much power it gives the party apparatus. No wonder how strong ANC is and how they can keep such a big corrupt cadre together. It is as if it is not written according to any Western norms, just for the benefit of the victors and not to upheld the rights of voters to know WHO they are actually voting for.

Best wishes,

Leifur