Sunday, March 29, 2009

Crime and Your Threshold

I recently posted an article related to South Africa's crime stats where I explored the possibility that our crime stats are being fudged. This article is related thereto, in that I use the black propensity to commit violent crime, and I explore the liklihood of becoming a victim.

Prior to 1994 all of us enjoyed a life which was relatively free of crime. I personally remember as a child being able to play marbles in the park, hopscotch in the street, camp in the veld and ride my bicycle wherever I liked. I remember having my bike stolen, when I didn't chain it up and being absolutely gutted that somebody would do such a thing. Our home was open onto the street and a home invasion would have been the remotest thought. Those days are long gone and I intuitively blame it on racial integration, but am I being irrational or racist? Let's examine this mathematically. Let's see what happens as blacks infiltrate our suburbs.

Using the sub-Saharan blacks propensity to commit violent crime at a rate of 10%, with whites at 2.79% I calculate the liklihood of being a victim to a black and a white attack, where the racial composition of a neighbourhood or country changes over time. Then I adjust the liklihood of being a victim, for a 4 member family. What do I find?

If you look at the graph, you will see that an all white neighbourhood or country has what appears to be a stable probability of being violently attacked by a white in any year of 10.56% (1 in 9). In other words, at least 1 of your 4 member family can expect to be a victim every 9 years.

When we add the black data we make some interesting discoveries. At first black integration has a neglible effect. Actually the probability of your family being a victim to a black attack is less than the risk of an attack from a white up to a level of 22%. In other words where approximately 1 in 5 people is black. Thereafter this increases. By the time your neighbourhood is 50% black, the liklihood of your family being attacked is already a staggering 1 in 3, and from 80% onwards you are virtually assured of an attack each year.

What does this all mean?

It means that as the neighbourhood becomes blacker so the black-on-white attacks increase. Initially this effect was muted, and this could be described as the initial honeymoon period, namely the 1994-2000 period, where we were actually lulled into believing that the "Rainbow Nation" experiment might actually work. Now I think we are beyond the 22% mark, and the crime stats are telling.

Government has an ultimate policy of ensuring that every neighbourhood is representative of the country's demographics. This means that all neighbourhoods will have a 90% black composition and this equates to a 97% probability that at least 1 of your family members will be attacked each year. This could eventually mean rape or murder.

So where is your threshold? When will you call it a day or what are you doing to ensure you don't become a victim?

2 Opinion(s):

Joe King said...

The spread of evil is the symptom of a vacuum, whenever evil wins, it is only by default; by the MORAL FAILURE of those who evade the fact that there can be NO compromise on basic principles. And as the guvermunt, who cannot control the crime plague, becomes the harrasser of law abiding citizens, the decay that follows will channel everybody into line and criminality will be the common denominator. The new gun laws spring to mind!!!

FishEagle said...

JK I support your statement 100%. Very well said.