Tuesday, September 30, 2008

IQ Analysis

This contribution was sent in by reader "VI" and I feel it worthy of posting, however it comes with a caveat.

I refuse to equate IQ with race because I simply do not believe the colour of your skin pigment is indicative of your intelligence and I don't think "VI" is saying that either. What the reader is trying to say is that, as a general supposition, the decline in intelligence levels and characteristics become evident as a gene pool is exhausted of its brightest and best.

Simply put, if you put 100 people in a room, it is possible to quantify them into degrees of intelligence. If the group is also multi-faceted you can further segment the percentages per race, gender etc. Now, bear in mind that IQ is not only genetically inherited but is also influenced by environmental factors, culture and education. I guarantee that had Einstein originated in a remote village in Papua New Guinea, although he may have become the brightest kid on the block, we wouldn't know about him today, the theory of relativity or that e=mc² for that matter.

What "VI" is saying is this: of the 100 people in the room, it figures that the brightest will rise to the top and indeed those become the ones most likely to be able to leave the group should they choose.

What that does, with due respect to those left behind in the group is that the people with the higher IQ having departed, the new IQ numbers will show that the level of intelligence for the group will have diminished, obviously.

Extrapolate this analogy to reflect on South African society. It is evident that the people that have left are, for the most part, highly skilled and intelligent as emigration requirements are very stringent. When that number constitutes such a large percentage as has happened over the past 15 years, what remains is, to be frank, not the cream. Consider what "VI" is posturing and decide whether you agree with him.

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Recent events surrounding the dismissal of Thabo Mbeki, and the appointment of the temporary President, Mr Kgalema Motlanthe, who seems to be making some prudent cabinet changes, has warranted discussing whether things may improve in South Africa.

Most emigrants, of which I am one, are reluctant émigrés. We would all have remained in South Africa under different circumstances, and many of us, together with the eternal optimists in South Africa, would like to think that a new improved dawn awaits. With this as a back drop I have embarked on some statistical analyses to take a peek at what the future holds. These types of analyses always require some assumptions, and this one is no different.

Let us assume that the new President, Mr Kgalema Motlanthe, becomes the elected President and continues to make prudent cabinet placements. On this basis it would be easy to imagine things improving. I mean it is not inconceivable to believe that the health sector, the judicial system and education would improve if the correct ministerial appointments were made right? So why not delay emigration further, and wait and see? I did, by eight years. You would be wrong.

The success of a society is largely correlated to its average IQ. This is well documented, and the preponderance of evidence suggests that IQ is genetically acquired, meaning that there are very few interventions that can significantly increase IQ in the short term.

Spending excessive amounts of money on education certainly isn’t going to transmit anything through to the genes. Furthermore, for a modern society to prosper it needs to have an average IQ of at least 90 to embrace the new technologies in large enough numbers to be effective. It is also well documented that to achieve a bachelors degree requires an IQ of at least 110, although it is largely suggested that a decent degree requires an IQ between 115 – 124.

Therefore in order for South Africa to prosper in a modern world requires a good supply of people at the various IQ levels, as well as an overall IQ of at least 90, or at least the prospect of achieving this.

If we analyse the population figures from
1960 – 1994 we find as follows: (click all images to enlarge)

Now that we have these figures, we can stratify these numbers according to established IQ measurements.

What we find is very revealing. Notably that the overall population growth rate was probably well in excess of the growth rates within the desired IQ categories. This inevitably would lead to the disparities we now experience between “haves” and “have nots”.

It is also apparent that the whites dominated in both categories. It must be
mentioned that apartheid could not have impacted on genetic IQ enough to bring about these figures.

But we have been subjected to 14 years of poor policies, emigration and HIV, which undoubtedly has had an impact.

Here we can see that the White and Asian populations have slowed significantly, probably due to emigration, whereas the Black and Coloured populations have probably slowed due to AIDS. These conclusions are derived simply from the average IQ levels within the respective population groups.

However imagine for a moment that emigration had not been a factor, nor had HIV. We could have safely assumed that the population growth would have been fairly consistent, and therefore we could extrapolate the
growth rate out to 2007, instead of relying on the government statistics. What would this reveal?

Let us assume that the reduction in the White and Asian figures were due to emigration. Let us further assume that the best and the brightest left first, which would mean reducing the crucial numbers within the 110 IQ category. What impact would this have had?

From the above figures the nightmare starts to unfold. If the emigration figures are close to the differences reported for the Asians and Whites, the impact on skills would be catastrophic.

You will see that there was at least 1 person with an IQ of 110 for every 27 people at the end of 1994. This may have reduced to 1 in every 147 people.

You will also notice that although the White flight has significantly impacted the 110 IQ category, Whites remain the largest contributor to this category. You will further notice that post 2007 the Coloured population figures are about to overtake the White population figures.

Some conclusions can be made.

There is no prospect of South Africa returning to its former glory so do not delay your emigration plans any further.

The reduction in white IQ, due to emigration, can explain why it is that so many whites behave so poorly when they should know better. Furthermore, no matter how good the new government is, it will be impossible to overcome the low overall IQ in a short space of time.

In fact with policies such as social grants, low IQs will continue to explode. Let me indicate that below 70 IQ, you are considered to be retarded, and more than 50% of the Black population fall into this category. It is highly probable that our Universities are passing significant numbers of students with IQs below 110, which undermines the quality of a South African education.

5 Opinion(s):

Anonymous said...

These figures are really bad for SA.
My prediction is that this trend will continue or even escalate.
You need a high IQ for progress and development.
Without IQ SA is stuffed.
The main asset of any country is it´s people but only if they have what it takes.
The retarded majority will be the downfall of SA as it was in the rest of black Africa.

Stupid said...

ALWAYS remember when in SA - stupidity is not contagious.

Loggi said...

Only skin deep?

Anonymous said...

From where do the figures shown in the tables (as 'fact') come from?

Vanilla Ice said...

The figures in the tables come from Statistics South Africa. The extrapolation is based on data going back to 1972. The IQ stratification is derived statistically using a good knowledge of the bell curve, where if a mean and a standard deviation are known then various points can be calculated. In response to loggi, "Only skin deep?", the preponderance of evidence from many of the leading researchers suggests that IQ is largely genetically determined, so it is embedded in your DNA.