Friday, September 26, 2008

Zim stalemate an opportunity for Mad Bob

While many sceptics believe the deal engineered by Thabo Mbeki would afford Robert Mugabe the opportunity to again outwit his opponents and carry on regardless, this is completely divorced from the reality.

In fact, the country has ground to a standstill while Mugabe and those still loyal to him attempt to cling to Cabinet posts which would give them de facto control of the country. Unfortunately for them this option is unworkable because the aid which is a sine qua non to recovery, is subject to the implementation of actual power sharing.

In essence this means that the MDC will operate the day-to-day running of the country through the Council of Ministers.

Without that there will be no aid being brought in to any of the ministries — meaning they cannot operate effectively — which will hasten Mugabe’s demise.

The MDC are now in the enviable position of being able to wait Mugabe out because, while he is still in control of the bedlam, the situation will continue to deteriorate and leave him more and more isolated.

Unfortunately, for the masses starving to death this waiting game is untenable.

Zanu-PF now have a short window of opportunity. On the one hand they have a president and his immediate circle clinging to a sinking raft and on the other hand, millions of starving countrymen.

In terms of the power sharing arrangement they are afforded an opportunity to regroup and reinvent themselves as a credible political party prior to the next election. They can go a long way towards achieving that by forcing the hand of their own party by insisting that the deal be implemented immediately, as negotiated by Mbeki. If they are seen to be calling for their own party to take up their 15 Cabinet posts and get back to the business of rebuilding the country, it will be a step away from survival politics.

The stalemate, particularly in light of Mbeki’s own political position, is a major problem for Zanu-PF not the MDC. The left wing of the ANC, ANCYL, Cosatu and the SACP are no friends of the party and have always taken the side of the Zimbabwean people. SADC and the AU are also becoming disenchanted with this nonsense and will act sooner rather than later if this threatens to drag on much longer.

The Zimbabwean deal, a disaster for democracy, has however afforded Zanu-PF the opportunity to arrive at a situation where Zimbabwe has two strong political parties.

This requires Zanu-PF to stand up and be counted. Advise the militants within the party that if they blow this deal then the party will be forced out.

If that should prove to be the case we could land up with another monocracy in Zimbabwe with the MDC seeking retribution (understandably) for atrocities carried on in the past. That is, in my humble opinion, undesirable. By default Zimbabwe can now land up with two opposing parties, each capable of taking power, which will ultimately be a triumph for democracy.

The time has come for the true leaders of the Zanu-PF to stand up and be counted. Those men and women who accept that, for whatever reason, the country has imploded and that the business of government must of necessity supercede self-interest if the process of recovery is to begin in earnest.

Their chance to prove that they have turned the corner has arrived.

Grab it with both hands before it’s too late.

1 Opinion(s):

WHITEADDER said...

For once aid should be not given. Africa must be shown the connection of cause and effect. Might make other governments in Africa a bit more careful and delay the destruction of Africa.